Westmorland and Lonsdale

To vote tactically here, vote

Lib Dem

Tim Farron

Notional 2019 election result

Tories 49.3%

Lib Dem 38.8%

Labour 9%

Green 1.2%

Brexit Party 1.1%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 27% Penrith and The Border (2019), 73% Westmorland and Lonsdale (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

The Lib Dems would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Lib Dem 63%	Tory 18%	Lib Dem
Survation	Lib Dem 39%	Tory 24%	Lib Dem
Ipsos	Lib Dem 48%	Tory 26%	Lib Dem
Savanta	Lib Dem 40%	Tory 24%	Lib Dem
Focaldata	Lib Dem 51%	Tory 27%	Lib Dem
WeThink	Lib Dem 49%	Tory 25%	Lib Dem
Electoral Calculus	Lib Dem 62%	Tory 18%	Lib Dem
More in Common	Lib Dem 45%	Tory 21%	Lib Dem
JL Partners	Lib Dem 39%	Tory 25%	Lib Dem

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.