Stoke-on-Trent Central

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Labour

Gareth Snell

Notional 2019 election result

Tories 49.6%

Labour 41.4%

Brexit Party 4.3%

Lib Dem 3.6%

Green 2%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 75% Stoke-On-Trent Central (2019), 6% Stoke-On-Trent North (2019), 20% Stoke-On-Trent South (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Labour 53%	Reform 19%	Labour
Survation	Labour 53%	Tory 22%	Labour
Ipsos	Labour 51%	Tory 23%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 54%	Tory 21%	Labour
Focaldata	Labour 48%	Reform 26%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 42%	Reform 28%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Labour 50%	Reform 28%	Labour
More in Common	Labour 45%	Tory 22%	Labour
JL Partners	Labour 46%	Tory 24%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.