Spen Valley

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Kim Leadbeater

Notional 2019 election result

Labour 43.6%

Tories 38.6%

Heavy Woollen District Independents 9.2%

Lib Dem 4.7%

Brexit Party 3.3%

Green 1.6%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 76% Batley and Spen (2019), 21% Dewsbury (2019), 4% Huddersfield (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Labour 46%	Reform 24%	Labour
Survation	Labour 53%	Tory 19%	Labour
Ipsos	Labour 48%	Tory 27%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 48%	Tory 32%	Labour
Focaldata	Labour 42%	Tory 24%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 44%	Tory 25%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Labour 46%	Tory 26%	Labour
More in Common	Labour 44%	Tory 25%	Labour
JL Partners	Labour 35%	Tory 26%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.