General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 68% Rhondda (2019), 19% Ogmore (2019), 13% Pontypridd (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
This is a 'safe' seat for a progressive party. We believe tactical voting is not needed this time. We encourage you to vote for your preferred party.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 50% | Reform 20% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 51% | Plaid 19% | None |
| Ipsos | Labour 55% | Plaid 13% | None |
| Savanta | Labour 49% | Plaid 17% | None |
| Focaldata | Labour 60% | Reform 22% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 66% | Plaid 12% | None |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 56% | Reform 20% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 49% | Reform 20% | Labour |
| JL Partners | Labour 57% | Reform 14% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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