General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 5% North East Hampshire (2019), 86% North West Hampshire (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
We have removed this tactical voting recommendation because it was contradicted by multiple independent polls.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 32% | Labour 24% | Labour |
| Survation | Tory 36% | Labour 34% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 32% | Labour 27% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 33% | Tory 30% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 34% | Labour 31% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 31% | Tory 31% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 33% | Labour 30% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 32% | Labour 26% | Labour |
| JL Partners | Tory 30% | Labour 25% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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