General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 40% Aylesbury (2019), 43% Buckingham (2019), 17% Chesham and Amersham (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
We have removed this tactical voting recommendation because it was contradicted by multiple independent polls.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 40% | Lib Dem 23% | Lib Dem |
| Survation | Labour 38% | Tory 32% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 36% | Labour 26% | Labour |
| Savanta | Tory 34% | Labour 31% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 34% | Lib Dem 24% | Lib Dem |
| WeThink | Tory 34% | Labour 26% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 31% | Labour 24% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 36% | Labour 23% | Labour |
| JL Partners | Tory 30% | Lib Dem 25% | Lib Dem |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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