Luton South and South Bedfordshire

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Rachel Hopkins

Notional 2019 election result

Labour 50.2%

Tories 32.7%

Independent 9.8%

Brexit Party 3.6%

Green 2.5%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 94% Luton South (2019), 6% South West Bedfordshire (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Labour 48%	Tory 17%	Labour
Survation	Labour 45%	Tory 19%	Labour
Ipsos	Labour 52%	Tory 18%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 57%	Tory 21%	Labour
Focaldata	Labour 52%	Reform 17%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 52%	Tory 20%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Labour 43%	Tory 20%	Labour
More in Common	Labour 45%	Tory 18%	Labour
JL Partners	Labour 47%	Reform 21%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.