Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Emma Hardy

Notional 2019 election result

Tories 40.2%

Labour 37.8%

Brexit Party 13.8%

Lib Dem 6.7%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 23% Haltemprice and Howden (2019), 77% Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Labour 50%	Reform 23%	Labour
Survation	Labour 47%	Reform 22%	Labour
Ipsos	Labour 48%	Tory 23%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 48%	Reform 23%	Labour
Focaldata	Labour 47%	Reform 23%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 54%	Reform 20%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Labour 40%	Reform 27%	Labour
More in Common	Labour 37%	Tory 19%	Labour
JL Partners	Labour 45%	Reform 21%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.