Harpenden and Berkhamsted

To vote tactically here, vote

Lib Dem

Victoria Collins

Notional 2019 election result

Tories 48.9%

Lib Dem 23.2%

Labour 15.9%

Independent 10.4%

Green 1.2%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 9% Hemel Hempstead (2019), 51% Hitchin and Harpenden (2019), 40% South West Hertfordshire (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

The Lib Dems would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Lib Dem 42%	Tory 27%	Lib Dem
Survation	Lib Dem 31%	Tory 30%	Lib Dem
Ipsos	Lib Dem 37%	Tory 31%	Lib Dem
Savanta	Lib Dem 31%	Tory 30%	Lib Dem
Focaldata	Lib Dem 39%	Tory 32%	Lib Dem
WeThink	Labour 34%	Tory 33%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Lib Dem 49%	Tory 21%	Lib Dem
More in Common	Lib Dem 34%	Tory 29%	Lib Dem
JL Partners	Tory 30%	Lib Dem 28%	Lib Dem

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.