General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 11% East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (2019), 60% Lanark and Hamilton East (2019), 29% Rutherglen and Hamilton West (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The SNP are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 52% | SNP 28% | None |
| Survation | Labour 57% | SNP 16% | None |
| Ipsos | Labour 51% | SNP 30% | None |
| Savanta | Labour 48% | SNP 29% | None |
| Focaldata | Labour 50% | SNP 21% | None |
| WeThink | Labour 50% | SNP 31% | None |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 45% | SNP 30% | None |
| More in Common | Labour 49% | SNP 25% | None |
| JL Partners | Labour 45% | SNP 28% | None |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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