General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 47% Eastleigh (2019), 46% Fareham (2019), 7% Meon Valley (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
We have removed this tactical voting recommendation because it was contradicted by multiple independent polls.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 39% | Lib Dem 25% | Lib Dem |
| Survation | Tory 34% | Labour 31% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 38% | Labour 24% | Labour |
| Savanta | Tory 31% | Labour 28% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 35% | Labour 23% | Labour |
| WeThink | Tory 36% | Labour 23% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 27% | Labour 26% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 34% | Lib Dem 26% | Lib Dem |
| JL Partners | Tory 28% | Lib Dem 25% | Lib Dem |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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