General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 30% Denton and Reddish (2019), 58% Manchester, Gorton (2019), 12% Manchester, Withington (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
This is a 'safe' seat for a progressive party. We believe tactical voting is not needed this time. We encourage you to vote for your preferred party.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 49% | Reform 16% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 61% | Reform 9% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 68% | Tory 11% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 67% | Tory 13% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 66% | Reform 14% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 70% | Tory 10% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 64% | Reform 15% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 61% | Reform 12% | Labour |
| JL Partners | Labour 60% | Reform 14% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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