General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 20% Banff and Buchan (2019), 80% Gordon (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The SNP would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 35% | SNP 32% | SNP |
| Survation | SNP 32% | Tory 30% | SNP |
| Ipsos | Tory 32% | SNP 30% | SNP |
| Savanta | Tory 32% | Labour 29% | Labour |
| Focaldata | SNP 28% | Tory 28% | SNP |
| WeThink | SNP 33% | Tory 26% | SNP |
| Electoral Calculus | SNP 34% | Labour 26% | None |
| More in Common | SNP 33% | Tory 32% | SNP |
| JL Partners | SNP 33% | Tory 26% | SNP |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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