General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 55% Fareham (2019), 45% Meon Valley (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
We have removed this tactical voting recommendation because it was contradicted by multiple independent polls.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 35% | Labour 23% | Labour |
| Survation | Tory 34% | Labour 28% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 37% | Labour 31% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 31% | Tory 29% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 31% | Labour 22% | Labour |
| WeThink | Tory 33% | Labour 32% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 27% | Labour 25% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 34% | Labour 26% | Labour |
| JL Partners | Tory 28% | Labour 24% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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