General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 20% Horsham (2019), 11% Lewes (2019), 36% Mid Sussex (2019), 32% Wealden (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
We have removed this tactical voting recommendation because it was contradicted by multiple independent polls.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 37% | Lib Dem 29% | Lib Dem |
| Survation | Labour 38% | Tory 34% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 45% | Labour 30% | Labour |
| Savanta | Tory 43% | Labour 32% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 35% | Lib Dem 32% | Lib Dem |
| WeThink | Tory 40% | Labour 27% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 47% | Labour 24% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 39% | Labour 24% | Labour |
| JL Partners | Lib Dem 32% | Tory 32% | Lib Dem |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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