General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 96% Dumfries and Galloway (2019), 4% Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The SNP would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | SNP 35% | Tory 29% | SNP |
| Survation | Tory 31% | SNP 29% | SNP |
| Ipsos | SNP 32% | Tory 27% | SNP |
| Savanta | Labour 32% | Tory 30% | Labour |
| Focaldata | SNP 28% | Labour 27% | None |
| WeThink | SNP 30% | Labour 26% | None |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 26% | SNP 26% | None |
| More in Common | Tory 32% | SNP 27% | SNP |
| JL Partners | SNP 35% | Tory 21% | SNP |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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