Bolton South and Walkden

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Yasmin Qureshi

Notional 2019 election result

Labour 50.7%

Tories 35.6%

Brexit Party 7.3%

Lib Dem 4.2%

Green 2.3%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 68% Bolton South East (2019), 32% Worsley and Eccles South (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Labour 53%	Reform 19%	Labour
Survation	Labour 52%	Tory 16%	Labour
Ipsos	Labour 65%	Tory 16%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 61%	Tory 17%	Labour
Focaldata	Labour 59%	Tory 16%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 52%	Reform 17%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Labour 45%	Reform 23%	Labour
More in Common	Labour 53%	Reform 17%	Labour
JL Partners	Labour 56%	Tory 17%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.