Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Nick Smith

Notional 2019 election result

Labour 48.7%

Tories 20%

Brexit Party 17.8%

Plaid 6.8%

Lib Dem 3.7%

Green 1%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 16% Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney (2019), 71% Blaenau Gwent (2019), 8% Caerphilly (2019), 4% Islwyn (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Labour 53%	Plaid 18%	None
Survation	Labour 60%	Plaid 20%	None
Ipsos	Labour 61%	Tory 16%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 55%	Tory 23%	Labour
Focaldata	Labour 76%	Tory 10%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 60%	Tory 17%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Labour 55%	Tory 29%	Labour
More in Common	Labour 66%	Tory 13%	Labour
JL Partners	Labour 52%	Plaid 19%	None

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.