General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 93% Birmingham, Hall Green (2019), 3% Birmingham, Selly Oak (2019), 4% Birmingham, Yardley (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
This is a 'safe' seat for a progressive party. We believe tactical voting is not needed this time. We encourage you to vote for your preferred party.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 54% | Tory 12% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 56% | Other 21% | None |
| Ipsos | Labour 63% | Tory 11% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 63% | Tory 15% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 64% | Green 11% | None |
| WeThink | Labour 63% | Reform 10% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 54% | Tory 12% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 53% | Other 14% | None |
| JL Partners | Labour 60% | Reform 12% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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