Basildon and Billericay

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Alex Harrison

Notional 2019 election result

Tories 67%

Labour 20.9%

Lib Dem 8.1%

Green 2.8%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 90% Basildon and Billericay (2019), 10% South Basildon and East Thurrock (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Labour 33%	Reform 29%	Labour
Survation	Labour 37%	Tory 33%	Labour
Ipsos	Labour 38%	Tory 33%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 37%	Tory 31%	Labour
Focaldata	Tory 37%	Labour 30%	Labour
WeThink	Tory 34%	Labour 29%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Labour 37%	Tory 27%	Labour
More in Common	Tory 33%	Labour 31%	Labour
JL Partners	Labour 31%	Tory 29%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.