General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 95% Argyll and Bute (2019), 5% Ross, Skye and Lochaber (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The SNP are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | SNP 37% | Tory 21% | SNP |
| Survation | SNP 38% | Tory 24% | SNP |
| Ipsos | SNP 37% | Labour 26% | None |
| Savanta | Labour 32% | SNP 30% | None |
| Focaldata | SNP 39% | Tory 21% | SNP |
| WeThink | SNP 37% | Labour 24% | None |
| Electoral Calculus | SNP 36% | Labour 26% | None |
| More in Common | SNP 37% | Tory 29% | SNP |
| JL Partners | SNP 32% | Labour 24% | None |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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