General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 75% Banff and Buchan (2019), 25% Moray (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The SNP would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | SNP 38% | Tory 30% | SNP |
| Survation | Tory 37% | SNP 29% | SNP |
| Ipsos | SNP 41% | Tory 26% | SNP |
| Savanta | Tory 33% | SNP 30% | SNP |
| Focaldata | SNP 31% | Tory 27% | SNP |
| WeThink | SNP 36% | Labour 26% | None |
| Electoral Calculus | SNP 35% | Labour 27% | None |
| More in Common | SNP 37% | Tory 27% | SNP |
| JL Partners | SNP 32% | Tory 28% | SNP |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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