Aberafan Maesteg

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Labour

Stephen Kinnock

Notional 2019 election result

Labour 50.7%

Tories 25.8%

Brexit Party 8.6%

Plaid 7.9%

Lib Dem 3.9%

Green 1.6%

Independent 1.4%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 61% Aberavon (2019), 1% Neath (2019), 16% Bridgend (2019), 22% Ogmore (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Labour 45%	Reform 19%	Labour
Survation	Labour 51%	Reform 16%	Labour
Ipsos	Labour 50%	Tory 13%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 53%	Reform 15%	Labour
Focaldata	Labour 53%	Reform 20%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 58%	Reform 13%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Labour 55%	Reform 20%	Labour
More in Common	Labour 51%	Reform 20%	Labour
JL Partners	Labour 55%	Reform 14%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.